Discontenteurs: I put on my semi-frequent elections hat and break down the results and implications for national and local elections of the last two months. Fret not, your favorite Global South country may appear in another election special (if I decide to make this a reoccurring segment). An also belated wish to our American audience that they enjoy their memorial weekend. I hope amidst the celebrations you take time to reflect on cost of those who have sacrificed and what we can do for them today.
-Spencer
India (April 11- May 19)
In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) took a commanding lead in the country's elections, currently projected to gain 303 of parliament's 542 seats. The opposition party, Rahul Gandhi's Indian National Congress, has only 52 seats after the results, paving the way for the BJP to shape much of the political agenda for a nation of 1.3 billion people. Many observers have noted the contrast between the 2014 election, where Modi's campaign promises were geared towards economic growth and development, compared to what Siddartha Deb today calls "A campaign of demagoguery and violence".
Voters were drawn to Modi’s strongman rhetorical style, his reputation for getting things done and his carefully crafted image of being a tough defender of India. He called himself the chowkidar — the watchman — and has pushed a more forceful foreign policy than India has pursued in years, including standing up to China, nearly going to war with Pakistan and drawing closer to the United States. His victory is likely to embolden right-wing Hindus, who have stoked violence against political and religious minorities, namely Dalits and Muslims, who make up 15% of the population. Concerns over the integrity and background of candidates have also heightened. According to the Association of Democratic Reforms, 233 of the 539 candidates have criminal charges against them, a 26% increase from the 2014 elections. One candidate for the state of Madya Pradesh, Pragya Singh Thakur, was once a member of the RSS and is currently facing charges for planning blasts in 2008 in neighboring Maharashtra state that killed six people.
Modi is certainly no stranger to these tactics; he was an early follower of the RSS, or National Volunteer Corps, a paramilitary organization that is seen as the parent to the political BJP. The RSS's primary vision is of a Hindu state, believing that Hinduism is the basis of Indian nationalism and followers of other faiths, mainly Islam and Christianity, are Hindus because Hinduism is not a religion but a way of life or the culture of the land. In Donald E. Smith’s India as a Secular State, he identifies the organization as fascist in beliefs and tactics, not only for its talk of racial superiority and their early admiration of figures like Hitler and Mussolini, but for the countless acts of sectarian violence and persecution they have stoked over the years. Modi himself was also governor of the state of Gujarat, when in 2002 riots broke out which left over 1,000 dead and 2,500 injured. Widespread allegations that Modi condoned and even coordinated violence against Muslim communities has been well-documented; Nevertheless, he has since re-branded himself as a pious strongman, uniting India under a Hinduvta (Hindu nationalist) agenda against its enemies and detractors.
Indonesia (April 17)
For the first time in the country's history, the president, vice president, and members of the Indonesia's legislative branch on both the state and local level were elected by over 150 million voters. The incumbent, Joko Widodo, carried the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) to victory with roughly 55% to Prabowo Subianto's 44%. Despite independent observers declaring the election free and fair, as well as the internal election agency finding no evidence of systemic cheating, Prabowo lodged a challenge to the result of last month's election in the Constitutional Court on Friday after complaining that the vote was rigged. Despite the May 22nd announcement by General Election Commission (KPU) revealing the final tallies, Prabowo repeated claims of widespread cheating in Jokowi's favour, and thousands of his supporters took to the streets of the capital, Jakarta, to protest against the final result of the April 17 vote. Several nights of rioting followed, with six people being killed in the violence; the police questioned suspects, who allegedly admitted "They were told to riot and that it was planned, we are still looking for those planners and who gave the money" a senior spokesman told reporters.
This incident is not new, as Prabowo also lost the 2014 presidential election to Widodo and objected to that result, lodging a complaint with the Constitutional Court that was rejected. As David McRae illuminated in a piece for the East Asia Forum, "Calls for 'people power' if Prabowo was 'cheated' out of victory were a repetitive feature of the last weeks of the campaign..and despite the mayhem caused in Jakarta, this week's protests seem unlikely to alter what appears to be broad public acceptance of the election result.". The results will strengthen Widodo's mandate to focus on developing expansive infrastructure projects, but many analysts caution the need to balance the modernizing projects with compensation in issues of land displacement, as well a dual pillar of conservative Islamism underpinning his support.
Philippines (May 13)
The country held parliamentary and senate elections in May, widely seen as a referendum on President Rodrigo Duterte. According to official results his allies won a majority of the 12 senate seats, with nine Duterte backers and three-nominally unaligned politicians in the 24-member senate. Only four opposition members will remain, leaving a stronger grip on power for a man who is responsible for a draconian campaign against drug dealers and users, as well as various other human rights violations.
Notably elected is the president's former national police chief, Ronald dela Rosa, who enforced Duterte's crackdown on illegal drugs. Additionally the president's three children also won races for mayor, vice mayor, and congressional representative in their southern home of Davao city. Sara Duterte, and talk of succeeding President Duterte in 2022 has dampened concern among his critics that he might try to cling to power by changing the constitution to remove the single-term limit for presidents, nevertheless paving the way for a dynasty of leaders in his strongman style. The President is currently serving out his single six-year term, and the vote seems to cement the public's support for him and his policies, who have become increasingly disillusioned with the failures of past liberal leaders.
South Africa (May 8)
The ruling African National Congress (ANC) party headed to the ballot box earlier this month to secure a stronger mandate against its main challengers, lead by President Cyril Ramaphosa. The results showed the ANC winning 57.5% of the vote, making this their sixth straight term in power since the end of apartheid 25 years ago. This gives the ANC 230 seats in the 400-member parliament, down from 249 in 2014. The two main oppositions parties, the center-right Democratic Alliance (DA) and the far-left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) won 20.77% and 11% of the vote respectively. This is a particularly strong showing for the EFF, who polled five percentage points higher than their first election in 2014 and have become the official opposition in 3 of South Africa's 9 provinces. The poor electoral results for the ANC are reflective of voter frustration over rampant corruption and high unemployment rates, as Ramaphosa faces the challenge of regaining public confidence. Despite declining faith in democracy, the same cannot be said for the president, who is the only politician to enjoy a positive trust score among voters, and may be uniquely equipped to navigate the political divide.
During the period of apartheid in South Africa, Ramaphosa was a notable trade union leader, working alongside Nelson Mandela and his allies to build a "Rainbow Coalition" that could not only break apart the country's racialized legacy but could build broad economic and social emancipation that the country needed. Briefly becoming a successful businessman during the administration of Jacob Zuma, a corruption scandal forced him out of office, with Ramaphosa securing the nomination in 2018. While particularly notorious during the kleptocratic Zuma administration, growing wealth inequality and stagnating economic growth have been at the top of the ANC's political agenda, as well as combating its own internal corruption issues.
While they pose no immediate threat to the ANC's hegemony, the EFF could be in a position to become a coalition partner, with some speculating EFF leadership may join the ANC to tilt it to the left. The Democratic Alliance is perhaps less notable for any concrete policy developments and more notorious for its connections with the Gupta brothers, a family implicated in multiple accounts of "state capture". Whether through strong unitary action or through a coalition, many of the key issues for economic development will be, as Mike Hanna has noted "Rebuilding the infrastructure which was halted under Zuma; providing free and clean water, and building a more resilient economy that can resist predatory finance schemes." Ultimately the ANC needs a mandate to be able to make the socioeconomic changes necessary in order to retain its legacy.
Europe in Focus: "The European Left in Disarray"
As I parse out the ongoing results of the latest European Union's Parliament elections, senior editor of Jacobin magazine Loren Balhorn offers tempered insights on the Left's ability to shape a cohesive agenda that will present "a clear idea how to transform the EU"
Fundamentally, the European Union is not a particularly democratic institution, Balhorn says, which is inherent to its structure since its proto-formation as the European Coal and Steel Community, an organization designed by Western European powers to foster deliberative cooperation and integrated markets. In the context of the EU however, this often is characterized by "Agreements brokered between elites, function(ing) as a mere straitjacket, preventing individual member-states from breaking with the austerity imposed by budget control measures like the European Semester program."
The organization of 751 members often has little say in the meat of EU politics, unable to pass comprehensive laws or reject proposals coming from the much weightier European Commission, in turn appointed by the European Council. This distancing of the political process, as well as the economic crises it has engendered has led to what Balhorn calls "a crisis of representation", as traditional parties at home feel backlash and give way to surging insurgent movements on the Left, Right, and center.
One of these movements, "Democracy in Europe 2025" or DiEM25, was launched by Greece's former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, and hopes to put forth bold road maps that will try and redefine what the European Union could be through a progressive lens. The failures of Podemos in Spain as well as Syriza in Greece should bring pause to future Left movements in Europe, Balhorn cautions, as it is the institutional playing field of the EU that is often designed to be not only anti-democratic but to squander and divide what minority power the Left has. The piece concludes with a demand that any wider leftist vision of power must also change the rules of the game so to speak, to not only stand a fighting chance but to make the whole of European society more equal and democratic.