Global Dispatch: Afghan Presidential Elections
Elections and Future Prospects Amidst Stalled Taliban Negotiations
In a country of 35 million people, approximately 9.6 million registered voters spread across over 5,000 voting stations headed to the polls today to decide on 18 candidates who could lead the new government. This will mark the second peaceful democratic transition of power since 2014, when Hamid Karzai lost to both Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah.
For those less antiquated with Afghanistan’s elections, I’ll be going over the recent backdrop of events that matter this go-around, what electoral conditions mean for the government’s legitimacy, a full list of the candidates, as well as various links to pieces that illuminate how these characters thread into the fabric of 40 tumultuous years.
Context
Despite the successful transition of a new government in the last general election, it was not without its controversies. Beyond allegations of widespread voter fraud, the results still have yet to be accurately determined, with Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah tied in a contentious runoff election that neither side would concede to. Ultimately, then-Secretary of State John Kerry mediated the process, helping to formula the position of Chief Executive Officer in order to allow both Ghani and Abdullah to form a national unity government. Five years later, tensions have rose yet again, with each of the frontrunners levying allegations of electoral fraud and delegitimization against one another. One candidate, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, has even alluded to violence if the results aren’t legitimate, before walking back those comments.
With Trump calling off attempts to mediate with the Taliban, it is unlikely the administration will resolve potential electoral disputes, noted Bilal Sarwary, an Afghan journalist and former parliamentary candidate for the northeastern Kunar province. Sarwary says many of the candidates have “Created an assumption that there will be fraud, and it will be committed by the government,” which has the potential to be a catalyst for further turmoil in the coming months.
Candidates have attempted to consolidate voters along ethnic lines, which constitute major political blocs in a predominantly Pashtun yet varied demographic landscape.
The results of this election will not only have ramifications on the country’s future as they attempt to develop institutional capacities to restore the public’s confidence in the government, but on the prospects of successful negotiations with the Taliban, who have disavowed Ashraf Ghani’s government in Kabul as an illegitimate actor since the talks began in 2018.
Electoral Conditions
Beginning in the early morning, the realities and constraints of voter turnout settled in, with Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission (IEC) saying it had lost contact with 901 of the country’s 5,373 polling centres. Much of this can be attributed to polling stations not opening due to either the threat of violence by the Taliban or concerns over international electoral monitors that “widespread fraud” would be perpetuated in Taliban-controlled areas.
Habib-Ur-Rahman Nang, head of the IEC secretariat, said the commission was not able to communicate with polling centres in the provinces of Badakhshan, Takhar, Kunduz and Baghlan, where telecom services were not active, local media TOLO News reported.
The combination of threats and undermined confidence in the government seems to have drastically depressed the vote in Taliban and non-Taliban controlled areas alike, with various electoral monitoring groups reporting that fewer than 2.5 million voters showed up to the polls on Saturday. The process has gone slow but smoothly compared to last year’s parliamentary elections, says Frud Bezhan, which was marked by machine and ballot tampering.
Preliminary results will be announced by October 17th, and if no candidate gets 51 percent of the vote, a runoff election will be held between the two leading candidates.
The Candidates:
Ashraf Ghani, President since 2014, Ghani comes from the majority Pashtun ethnic group. Served as Finance Minister under former president Hamid Karzai, 2002-2004
He has tapped into his pro-Pashtun image considerably, with his approval ratings varying among Pashtun and non-Pashtun Afghans.
He has largely sought to improve relations with regional neighbors such as Uzbekistan and Iran through trade and infrastructure agreements; save for Pakistan, calling them “the center of the Taliban” after a series of attacks in 2018
His administration has been plagued accusations of abuse of power and corruption, including most recently by ex-government officials who detail the exchange of sexual favors for government posts.
Running Mates
Amrullah Saleh, head of the National Directorate of Security (NDS) 2004-2010, interior minister 2018-2019, former member of Ahmad Shah Massoud's Northern Alliance
Founded the pro-democracy, anti-Taliban movement Basej-e Milli. Ethnic Tajik, second largest group
Sarwar Danish, current VP, from the third largest ethnic group the Hazara
Abdullah Abdullah, Chief Executive Officer of Afghanistan, a post created after 2014 to resolve electoral disputes and form a national unity government
He has tried to consolidate the Hazara/Uzbek voting blocs that make up 20% of the population, via the endorsement of Mohammad Karim Khalili and Mohammad Mohaqeq: former Hazara warlords
Abdullah’s standing has declined amongst his ethnic Tajik community and the Tajik-dominated Jamiat-e Islami party, due to the loss of support amongst several party stalwarts
Running Mates
Babur Farahmand, an ethnic Uzbek ally of Abdul Rashid Dostum
Asadullah Sadati, a Hazara who is backed by Khalili, a former vice president
Rahmatullah Nabil, two-time chief of the NDS, ethnic Pashtun from the central province of Maidan Wardak
He is an outspoken opponent of the Taliban and Pakistan, critical of Ghani government for growing insecurity and endemic corruption
Running Mates
Murad Ali Murad, a Hazara who was the deputy interior minister and an army commander
Massuda Jalal, an ethnic Tajik who was the former Minister of Women’s Affairs.
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, Former warlord and briefly Prime Minister, head of the Hezb-e Islami militancy, and widely condemned for his role in the brutal civil war of the 1990s
He later signed a peace deal with the government in 2016 to allow him back into public life
He has since called on Taliban to come to negotiating table in recent years
I can’t move past Hekmatyar without mentioning two profiles (here and here) that illuminate more on his history and current political ambitions.
Running Mates
Fazl ul-Hadi Wazin and Hafiz ul-Rahman Naqi, ethnic Tajiks and members of Hezb-e Islami.
Ahmad Wali Massud, younger brother of Ahmad Shah Massud, renowned anti-Soviet and anti-Taliban resistance commander who was assassinated days before September 11th
An Ethnic Tajik and a prominent member of the Jamiat-e Islami, he served as ambassador to Britain
Running Mates
Farida Mohmand, a Pashtun who was a former higher education minister
Latif Nazari, a Hazara who was educated in Iran and ran for parliament in 2018
Nur ul-Haq Ulumi, Former General Nur ul-Haq Ulumi, a Pashtun, is a former interior minister from 2015-2016
An Ex-Communist Party member, he was a major figure in the 1980s, when he was a general in the Afghan Army
Abdul Latif Pedram, An ethnic Tajik from the northeastern province of Badakhshan, he heads the National Congress party
Latif Pedram´s political vision is to empower the human rights of minorities like Pashaiyis, Parachis, Hazaras and other ethnicities as well as decentralizing rule of the country to resolve inter-ethnic conflicts
Running Mates
Ehsanullah Haidari, a Hazara who worked for several international organizations in Kabul
Mohammad Sadeq Wardak, a Pashtun and former member of the mujahedin.
Nurullah Jalili, A former official in the Taliban regime’s Foreign Ministry, Nurullah Jalili is a wealthy businessman who owns a construction company in Kabul.
Running Mates
Khalil Roman, an ethnic Tajik communist-era official who served as former President Mohammad Najibullah’s chief of staff
Cheragh Ali Cheragh, a health official who headed a university in northern Afghanistan.
Faramarz Tamana, a former Foreign Ministry official and university lecturer educated in India and Iran
Running Mates
Sayyed Qias Saidi, a Pashtun who worked for UNICEF
Mohammad Amin Reshadat, a Hazara who is the chancellor of a private university in Kabul.
Additional Resources:
Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan: Electoral Process (Some English, Some Pashto)
If you want to know the granular details of the process, the candidates, polling station locations etc. I highly recommend the IEC’s data
Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission Twitter (Pashto)
Afghanistan Analysts Network: Election Primer
A good resource/website to peel through if you want a more thorough interpretation of the candidates and their prospects, as well as other conditions that may factor into the final tallies
Twitter Follows:
Editor’s Note: This piece may be updated live as results and conditions of the September 28th election unfold.